Before we get into the NFL Week 7 picks, lets look back at a miserable performance against the spread from last week. On the season, we are still over .500 (44-41) but last week was bad with just five of 13 correct. Sometimes that happens but mostly we blame karma for slamming us with some humility after too much bragging.
The only early game we got right was the Bengals over the Colts. Everything else was a disaster. Cam Newton had his worst game of the season against Atlanta just when we predicted his breakout game. We thought the Packers would let down and not cover against a bad team (Rams) and the Steelers would pick it up and blow out their poor opponent (Jaguars). The opposite happened. Washington sank. The Lions blew their chance against the 49ers (and did you hear about the dust up between the coaches!). And even the Giants game we picked right we lost by .5 a point.
The afternoon and evening games did provide redemption with our expert picks against the spread going four-for-six including the Cowboys losing but covering just as we predicted.
This week we will start with the Cardinals vs. Steelers on Wednesday and then do picks for the early games on Thursday and the rest of the slate on Friday.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals (+4): The obvious question here is why this line is so small. The Steelers are 4-2 while the Cardinals and Kevin Kolb (1-4) seem to be moving in the wrong direction and have gotten worse with each game instead of better. There's not a single statistical category on either side of the ball that Arizona has and edge over Pittsburgh and no major injuries are impacting either side.
The answer to the low line probably lies in the Steelers 0-3 road record against the spread, their poor showing at home against the Jaguars in a 17-13 win, and the fact that Arizona is both desperate and coming off a bye week. The Cardinals are also much MUCH better at home going 21-13 vs 12-23 on the road.
The Cardinals had a players-only meeting after their embarrassing loss to Minnesota and claim to have had great practices last week and this week. They are saying all the right things but ultimately, it comes down to Kevin Kolb and his ability to read and react to pressure in the pocket and on that front, we're not sold. Pick: Steelers
Note: It's still early in the week so this pick could change if there's significant news from either side. We'll provide an update to this stream if that happens.