One of the most fun activities to do as the NFL season nears is pick team over/unders. I picked up the habit listening to Mike and the Mad Dog on WFAN growing up. Here are my picks, who do you guys like?
Atlanta Falcons Over 9
Atlanta will have a top five scoring offense and it wouldn't shock me if they finished ranked #1. Their first seven games are at Kansas City, vs. Denver, @ San Diego, vs. Carolina, @ Washington and vs. Oakland. That has 6-0 potential. Let's say they get five of those, and then they need to go 5-5 the rest of the way, with two games left against Tampa Bay, one against the Cardinals and Panthers. Atlanta's defense also has some upside.
Denver Broncos Over 8.5
In 11 out of 13 years as a starting quarterback Peyton Manning has won 10 games or more. Denver is in a mediocre division, which they should be able to go 5-1 or at worst 4-2. The strategy here will be very similar to what the Colts did with Peyton, try to get leads so Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil can pin their ears back to get after opposing quarterbacks, just like Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
Miami Dolphins Under 6.5
Despite having an easy schedule Miami has the potential to be the worst of the bunch. I like what new head coach Joe Philbin is doing, but the Fins are probably two years from being ready to compete for a playoff spot. 6.5 is way too high a number.
New York Jets Over 8.5
The Jets haven't scored a touchdown in the preseason. We will look back at those stories and realize it was probably the dumbest storyline not involved with Tim Tebow. New York has an elite defense; if the offense cuts down on the turnovers they will be fine. Go back and look at the offense they went 9-7 with in Rex Ryan's rookie year. The offensive line was better, but this one has comparable, if not a little better personnel. AFC East plays against NFC West and AFC South. New York does catch a tough break playing at Seattle and St. Louis back to back weeks, but they should be able to get through it.
San Diego Chargers Under 9
I honestly don't understand how this number is so high. Since going 13-3 under Norv Turner in 2009, San Diego has trended down going 9-7, and 8-8 this past season. They lost running back Mike Tolbert, who scored 10 touchdowns, and their best wide receiver in Vincent Jackson. I would like them a little more if Vincent Brown was healthy; instead the wide receiver is going to miss significant time with a broken ankle.
Seattle Seahawks Over 7.5
I'm a fan of what is going on in Seattle, Washington. Pete Carroll has the Seahawks going in the right direction. The defense is excellent and the offense has potential. If Russell Wilson and Braylon Edwards continue to show the chemistry they did in the preseason it could open things up even more for their running game. If the rookie quarterback struggles Seattle has a nice fall back option in Matt Flynn.